Investigation of the Convection‐Allowing Prediction Error of an Extreme Precipitation Event of China Using CRTM‐Simulated Brightness Temperature.
In: Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres, Jg. 127 (2022-09-27), Heft 18, S. 1-25
Online
academicJournal
Zugriff:
An extreme rainfall case occurred on 20 July 2016 in northern China, producing over 600 mm of maximum 24 hr accumulated rainfall. The case is characterized by low‐echo centroid (LEC) based on radar observations. It is simulated by Weather Research and Forecasting model at 4 km grid spacing using the Morrison two‐moment microphysics scheme. Infrared brightness temperature (BT) simulated using a radiative transfer model together with simulated reflectivity are used to evaluate the simulated cloud structures. In general, the model predicts the rainfall amount, location, and propagation well. However, it fails to accurately predict the three‐dimensional cloud structures. The predicted convective cores (>35 dBZ) are higher than the freezing level, suggesting the presence of active cold‐cloud processes while the observed LEC suggests that warm‐cloud processes dominate. The simulation also produces too many upper level clouds and over‐predicts the fractions of overshooting clouds, resulting great over‐prediction of cloud top height (CTH). Additionally, the sensitivity of simulated BT to predicted cloud properties including CTH, cloud species and hydrometeor effective radii are examined to better understand the sources of error in simulated BT. Among those factors, CTH is found to be most critical to BT simulation. For every kilometer of CTH over‐prediction, there is about 6.431 K of negative BT bias owing to the lapse rate and the absorption and scattering effects of cloud particles. For most cloudy regions, cloud ice dominates the effect on simulated BT. Using diagnosed effective radii of simulated hydrometeors within the radiative transfer model results in small improvement to the BT simulation. Key Points: The 3D cloud structure of a severe low‐echo centroid (LEC) convection case is poorly simulated with three popular two‐moment microphysics schemesOver‐prediction of convective core heights and upper‐level cloud fraction suggest deficiencies in the microphysics schemes in simulating LECSimulated brightness temperature is most sensitive to cloud top height and vertical distribution of ice particles [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Titel: |
Investigation of the Convection‐Allowing Prediction Error of an Extreme Precipitation Event of China Using CRTM‐Simulated Brightness Temperature.
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Autor/in / Beteiligte Person: | Yang, Nan ; Zhu, Kefeng ; Xue, Ming |
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Zeitschrift: | Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres, Jg. 127 (2022-09-27), Heft 18, S. 1-25 |
Veröffentlichung: | 2022 |
Medientyp: | academicJournal |
ISSN: | 2169-897X (print) |
DOI: | 10.1029/2022JD036760 |
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