Simulating Hail and Lightning Over the Alpine Adriatic Region—A Model Intercomparison Study.
In: Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres, Jg. 128 (2023-07-16), Heft 13, S. 1-26
Online
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Zugriff:
Hail is a significant convective weather hazard, often causing considerable crop and property damage across the world. Although extremely damaging, hail still remains a challenging phenomenon to model and forecast, given the limited computational resolution and the gaps in understanding the processes involved in hail formation. Here, eight hailstorms occurring over the Alpine‐Adriatic region are analyzed using simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling (COSMO) models, with embedded HAILCAST and Lightning Potential Index (LPI) diagnostics at kilometer‐scale grid spacing (∼2.2 km). In addition, a systematic model intercomparison study is performed to investigate the ability of the different modeling systems in reproducing such convective extremes, and to further assess the uncertainties associated with simulations of such localized phenomena. The results are verified by hailpad observations over Croatia, radar estimates of hail over Switzerland, and lightning measurements from the LINET network. The analysis reveals that both HAILCAST and LPI are able to reproduce the affected area and intensities of hail and lightning. Moreover, hail and lightning fields produced by both models are similar, although a slight tendency of WRF to produce smaller hail swaths with larger hailstones and higher LPI compared to COSMO is visible. It is found that these differences can be explained by systematic differences in vertical profiles of microphysical properties and updraft strength between the models. Overall, results are promising and indicate that both HAILCAST and LPI could be valuable tools for real‐time forecasting and climatological assessment of hail and lightning in current and changing climate. Plain Language Summary: Hail is a dangerous type of weather that can cause damage to crop and property. In this study, two numerical models are used, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling (COSMO), to simulate eight hailstorms in the Alpine‐Adriatic region. These simulations included two diagnostic tools, HAILCAST and Lightning Potential Index (LPI), to simulate hail and lightning. The simulations were verified by direct measurements of hail, radar estimates of hail, and lightning measurements. The study found that both HAILCAST and LPI were able to accurately predict characteristics of hail and lightning. The models produced similar results, with a slight difference in hail size and LPI between the WRF and COSMO models, which was attributed to differences in microphysical properties and updraft strength. Overall, the study suggests that these diagnostic tools could be useful for real‐time forecasting and assessing hail and lightning in the present and future climate. Key Points: Km‐scale simulations over the Alpine‐Adriatic region show that HAILCAST and Lightning Potential Index are successful in diagnosing observed hail and lightningResults are presented using the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling and Weather Research and Forecasting models for a total of eight case studies covering different types of hail stormsOverall, the two models yield similar results, but some systematic differences are found and tied to differences in model structure [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Titel: |
Simulating Hail and Lightning Over the Alpine Adriatic Region—A Model Intercomparison Study.
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Autor/in / Beteiligte Person: | Malečić, B. ; Cui, R. ; Demory, M. E. ; Horvath, K. ; Jelić, D. ; Schär, C. ; Telišman Prtenjak, M. ; Velasquez, P. ; Ban, N. |
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Zeitschrift: | Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres, Jg. 128 (2023-07-16), Heft 13, S. 1-26 |
Veröffentlichung: | 2023 |
Medientyp: | academicJournal |
ISSN: | 2169-897X (print) |
DOI: | 10.1029/2022JD037989 |
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