The neglected role of relative humidity in the interannual variability of urban malaria in Indian cities.
In: Nature Communications, Jg. 13 (2022-10-23), Heft 1, S. 1-9
Online
academicJournal
Zugriff:
The rapid pace of urbanization makes it imperative that we better understand the influence of climate forcing on urban malaria transmission. Despite extensive study of temperature effects in vector-borne infections in general, consideration of relative humidity remains limited. With process-based dynamical models informed by almost two decades of monthly surveillance data, we address the role of relative humidity in the interannual variability of epidemic malaria in two semi-arid cities of India. We show a strong and significant effect of humidity during the pre-transmission season on malaria burden in coastal Surat and more arid inland Ahmedabad. Simulations of the climate-driven transmission model with the MLE (Maximum Likelihood Estimates) of the parameters retrospectively capture the observed variability of disease incidence, and also prospectively predict that of 'out-of-fit' cases in more recent years, with high accuracy. Our findings indicate that relative humidity is a critical factor in the spread of urban malaria and potentially other vector-borne epidemics, and that climate change and lack of hydrological planning in cities might jeopardize malaria elimination efforts. Climate conditions and urbanization can be major drivers of vector-borne infections. Here the authors demonstrate that an often-neglected climate variable, humidity, is an important factor for malaria epidemics in two urban areas in India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Nature Communications is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Titel: |
The neglected role of relative humidity in the interannual variability of urban malaria in Indian cities.
|
---|---|
Autor/in / Beteiligte Person: | Santos-Vega, M. ; Martinez, P. P. ; Vaishnav, K. G. ; Kohli, V. ; Desai, V. ; Bouma, M. J. ; Pascual, M. |
Link: | |
Zeitschrift: | Nature Communications, Jg. 13 (2022-10-23), Heft 1, S. 1-9 |
Veröffentlichung: | 2022 |
Medientyp: | academicJournal |
ISSN: | 2041-1723 (print) |
DOI: | 10.1038/s41467-022-28145-7 |
Schlagwort: |
|
Sonstiges: |
|