Uncertainty of energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the building sector in China.

• A bottom-up national energy technology model for building sector was developed. • The evolutionary paths of building energy consumption and CO 2 emissions are drawn. • Building energy consumption and CO 2 emissions will peak in 2025–2040 and 2025–2035. • The electricity consumption in the buildings will reach 2515–7242 TWh by 2050. Uncertainty is a major concern in projecting the energy consumption and CO 2 emissions from buildings with implications for the formulation of mitigation and adaptation measures. Due to multiple uncertainties, it is difficult to assess how the energy consumption of buildings in China and the associated CO 2 emissions will develop in the coming decades. Aiming to give a more accurate picture of the uncertainty of the driving factors, we develop a bottom-up national energy technology model for building sector (NET-Building) to depict the evolutionary trajectories of energy consumption and CO 2 emissions in China's building sector by considering the uncertainty of future evolution trends of key variables that affecting the energy consumption and CO 2 emissions. The results show that China's building energy consumption and CO 2 emissions will peak in 2025–2040 and 2025–2035, with peak energy consumption and CO 2 emissions varying from 742–1585 Mtce and 2238–4211 Mt, respectively. Meanwhile, the electricity consumption in the building sector in China will reach 2515–7242 TWh by 2050, indicating a large variation range caused by uncertainties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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