Ex-post assessment of China's industrial energy efficiency policies during the 11th Five-Year Plan

China implemented a package of policies during the 11th Five-Year Plan (2006–2010) to improve industrial energy efficiency. This assessment provides a methodology that establishes a causal relationship between policy implementation and energy conservation effects. To enhance the confidence in the research findings, this assessment applies two distinctive and independent approaches: one top-down and the other bottom-up. This assessment finds that industrial energy efficiency policies collectively achieved energy savings of 322 Mtce (9.4 EJ) against the baseline scenario. This accounted for 59% of the sector's total energy savings from 2006 to 2010. The remaining energy savings were realised through autonomous technology improvement (33%) and sector-level structural shift (8%). Correspondingly, cumulative avoided CO2 emissions realised through energy efficiency policies amounted to 760 million tons. This assessment concludes that industrial energy efficiency policies were effective in realising energy conservation targets, but energy conservation effects were not achieved in a cost-effective way. Command and control measures were dominantly implemented, with economic incentives and informational measures taking a complementary role; while market based instruments did not play an important role. As China is planning on implementing a nationwide emissions trading scheme, special attention needs to be paid to policy interaction and coordination.