The gaps and pathways to carbon neutrality for different type cities in China

Cities play critical roles in achieving carbon-neutrality, and the pathways to the carbon-neutral goal are different because of cities’ various developmental levels. On the basis of the industrial structure and energy intensity, “2 + 26” cities were classified firstly. With LEAP-city model built, the gaps and pathways to carbon neutrality for different city types (SCJ, CCL, CCX, and ICZ) are analyzed under the policy (PO) and low-carbon (LC) scenarios. Results show that CCL and CCX would be carbon-neutral without carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology in the LC scenario. If SCJ and ICZ apply the CCS for the power and heating plants, they can be carbon neutral in 2049 and 2050, respectively. Regarding CO2 emissions, the industry sector in all energy demand sectors is always the most key sector for CCX and ICZ from 2016 to 2030, which means optimizing production processes and reducing surplus output are very important. After high energy-consuming industries are moved out CCL and SCJ, CO2 emissions from transportation and buildings are the challenges. Therefore, instead of fuel vehicles, zero-carbon vehicles are the first option. Electrification and zero-carbon energy used in buildings are the priorities combined with the decarbonization of electricity, which would also be a highly efficient measure in the industry sector after 2030.