Tsunami Impact Assessment and Vulnerability Index Development using Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model and Geographic Information System (GIS) – A Study on Mie Prefecture, Japan

Japan is highly prone to multiple natural hazards, such as typhoons, earthquakes, and tsunamis in general. However, the compound disaster that entailed earthquake, tsunami, and a nuclear crisis, along with disruption of the global supply chain triggered by the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, highlighted the need for a holistic risk assessment of impacts amplified by multiple disasters. According to the Cabinet Office of Japan, the occurrence probability of a Nankai Trough Earthquake and Tsunami is 70% within the next 30 years. It suggests the need for comprehensive impact assessment to enhance the disaster risk reduction strategies of the region. This study conducts a tsunami impact assessment using quantitative analysis to identify vulnerable industries in Mie Prefecture, Japan, famous for tourism, value-added sectors of aquaculture, food processing, and petroleum refining tanks situated in at-risk areas. To create a tsunami shock scenario, we apply a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model using an input-output table of the Mie Prefecture (2015 version) and geographic information system (GIS). The street-level business entity data enable us to incorporate with the disaster scenario to provide evidence-based damage estimates of capital and labor loss due to a tsunami. We present the simulation results of output change, price change, external trade, and welfare analysis and propose creating a vulnerability index (VI) for disaster impact. These quantified and visualized indicators would provide informative implications for ex-ante policymaking and risk financing to cope with fragile sectors effectively.