Prediction of heart failure outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: Validation of the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction Risk Score for Heart Failure in Diabetes ( <scp> TRS‐HF DM </scp> ) in patients in the <scp>ACCORD</scp> trial

Background The Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction Risk Score for Heart Failure in Diabetes (TRS-HFDM ) risk stratifies patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and high cardiovascular risk for heart failure (HF) hospitalization. The utility of TRS-HFDM in risk stratification for HF outcomes requires further validation. Materials and methods We used data from the control group of The Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes Study Group (ACCORD) trial (n=5123; mean follow up 4.8 years). The TRS-HFDM includes: prior HF (2 points), atrial fibrillation (1 point), coronary artery disease (1 point), estimated glomerular filtration rate 300 mg/g; 2 point and 30-300 mg/g; 1 point). We evaluated discrimination (Harrell C index) and calibration (Nam-D Agostino calibration statistic) of TRS-HFDM for time to HF hospitalization or death due to HF. Results The mean age of participants was 62.8±6.6 years, and 38% were female. The prevalence of TRS-HFDM for 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4+ were 42.1%, 34.9%, 14.6%, 6.0%, and 2.5% respectively. Increasing TRS-HFDM corresponded to an increasing HF risk: 1.3/1000 person years (PY) (TRS-HFDM : 0) to 64.7/1000 PY (TRS-HFDM : 4+). TRS-HFDM demonstrated robust discrimination for HF outcomes (C-index 0.78). Furthermore, the score was well calibrated for HF outcomes (calibration statistic p=0.13). Similar results were seen in participants without baseline HF (C-index 0.75). Conclusion The TRS-HFDM discriminates for HF specific risk among people with T2DM. Using the TRS-HFDM to identify those who maximally benefit from therapies that reduce HF risk warrants evaluation. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.