Development and validation of a prediction model for 30-day mortality in hospitalised patients with COVID-19: the COVID-19 SEIMC score
In: Repisalud Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII) Thorax Thorax 2021;76:920-929 Digital.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC instname Dipòsit Digital de la UB Universidad de Barcelona UCrea Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de Cantabria Universidad de Cantabria (UC) Biblos-e Archivo. Repositorio Institucional de la UAM; (2021)
Online
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Zugriff:
COVID-19@Spain and COVID@HULP Study.
[Objective] To develop and validate a prediction model of mortality in patients with COVID-19 attending hospital emergency rooms.
[Design] Multivariable prognostic prediction model.
[Setting] 127 Spanish hospitals.
[Participants] Derivation (DC) and external validation (VC) cohorts were obtained from multicentre and single-centre databases, including 4035 and 2126 patients with confirmed COVID-19, respectively.
[Interventions] Prognostic variables were identified using multivariable logistic regression.
[Main outcome measures] 30-day mortality.
[Results] Patients’ characteristics in the DC and VC were median age 70 and 61 years, male sex 61.0% and 47.9%, median time from onset of symptoms to admission 5 and 8 days, and 30-day mortality 26.6% and 15.5%, respectively. Age, low age-adjusted saturation of oxygen, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, estimated glomerular filtration rate by the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation, dyspnoea and sex were the strongest predictors of mortality. Calibration and discrimination were satisfactory with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve with a 95% CI for prediction of 30-day mortality of 0.822 (0.806–0.837) in the DC and 0.845 (0.819–0.870) in the VC. A simplified score system ranging from 0 to 30 to predict 30-day mortality was also developed. The risk was considered to be low with 0–2 points (0%–2.1%), moderate with 3–5 (4.7%–6.3%), high with 6–8 (10.6%–19.5%) and very high with 9–30 (27.7%–100%).
[Conclusions] A simple prediction score, based on readily available clinical and laboratory data, provides a useful tool to predict 30-day mortality probability with a high degree of accuracy among hospitalised patients with COVID-19.
This work was supported by Fundación SEIMC/GeSIDA. The funders had no role in study design, data collection, data interpretation or writing of the manuscript. JB, JRB, IJ, JC, JP and JRA received funding for research from Plan Nacional de I+D+i 2013‐2016 and Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Subdirección General de Redes y Centros de Investigación Cooperativa, Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades, cofinanced by the European Development Regional Fund “A way to achieve Europe”, Operative program Intelligent Growth 2014‐2020. Spanish AIDS Research Network (RIS) (RD16/0025/0017 (JB), RD16/0025/0018 (JRA), RD16CIII/0002/0006 (IJ)). Spanish Network for Research in Infectious Diseases (REIPI) (RD16/0016/0001 (JRB), RD16/0016/0005 (JC) and RD16/0016/0009 (JP)).
Titel: |
Development and validation of a prediction model for 30-day mortality in hospitalised patients with COVID-19: the COVID-19 SEIMC score
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Autor/in / Beteiligte Person: | Salillas, Juan ; Miguel Fernández Huerta ; González-Pizarro, Patricio ; Francisco Javier Membrillo ; Galera, Raul ; Rodríguez-Baño, Jesús ; Galvez, Lydia ; Cuadros-González, Juan ; Gabarrell-Pascuet, Aina ; Diaz-Garzon, Jorge ; INMA, JARRIN ; González-Rico, Claudia ; Alicia Rico Nieto ; Cervera, Cristina ; Carlos Bea Serrano ; Alberto Ouro Villasante ; Ruiz-Carrascoso, Guillermo ; Díaz-Pollán, Beatriz ; María del mar Arcos Rueda ; Garcia-Rodriguez, Julio ; GUTIÉRREZ-GUTIÉRREZ, BELEN ; MARCO ANTONIO SEMPERE, ALCOCER ; Cristina Verdú Sánchez ; Hernández-Rivas, Lucía ; Cuervo, Guillermo ; Smithson, Alejandro ; Torralba, Miguel ; Bloise, Iván ; Rombauts, Alexander ; Toro, Carlos ; Lucio Jesus García-Fraile Fraile ; Alejandro García-Ruiz de Morales ; Tortajada, Cecilia ; KAPIL LAXMAN NANWANI, NANWANI ; Lorena De la Mora Cañizo ; Lorenzo-Esteller, Laia ; Jorge Álvarez Troncoso ; Cristina Roca Oporto ; Martin-Quiros, Alejandro ; Oteo, José A. ; Eduardo Malmierca Corral ; Stewart, Stefan ; Pachón, Jerónimo ; Gutiérrez-Arroyo, Almudena ; Victor, Moreno-Cuerda ; Carpio, Carlos ; Cendejas-Bueno, Emilio ; Fernandez-Calle, Pilar ; Antonio Javier Carcas Sansuán ; Inciarte, Alexy ; Ryan, Pablo ; Puente-Maestu, Luis ; Jesús Troya García ; Francisco de Asís Alcántara Nicolás ; Abelenda-Alonso, Gabriela ; Benito, Natividad ; Daniel Prieto Arribas ; Mingorance, Jesus ; Jose L Del Pozo ; Carratala, Jordi ; Marcelo, Cristina ; Ruiz-Algueró, Marta ; Sarah CARO, BRAGADO ; Berenguer, Juan ; Diaz-Brito, Vicens ; Víctor Hontañón Antoñana ; Cadiñanos, Julen ; Arribas, Jose ; María Jesús Jaras Hernández ; Henar Calvo Sánchez ; Cordero, Elisa ; Instituto de Salud Carlos, III ; Seimc-Gesida, Fundación ; Plan Nacional de I+D+i (España) ; Ministerio de Ciencia y Universidades (España) ; Unión Europea. Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER/ERDF) ; Red de Investigación Cooperativa en Investigación en Sida (España) ; Red de Investigación Cooperativa en Investigación en Patología Infecciosa (España) ; SEIMC-GESIDA, Fundación ; Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España) ; Commission, European ; Red Española de Investigación en, SIDA ; Red Española de Investigación en Patología Infecciosa ; Universidad de Cantabria ; UAM. Departamento de Farmacología ; UAM. Departamento de Medicina |
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Quelle: | Repisalud Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII) Thorax Thorax 2021;76:920-929 Digital.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC instname Dipòsit Digital de la UB Universidad de Barcelona UCrea Repositorio Abierto de la Universidad de Cantabria Universidad de Cantabria (UC) Biblos-e Archivo. Repositorio Institucional de la UAM; (2021) |
Veröffentlichung: | BMJ Publishing Group, 2021 |
Medientyp: | unknown |
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