Scenario for structural development of livestock production in the Baltic littoral countries

Livestock production in developed countries has undergone profound changes in recent decades and this development seems to continue apace. One consequence is that manure is being - and will be - produced on fewer but larger farms. Data on the bulk of manure nutrients from each country are published by Eurostat, but it is not known how manure is distributed across farms of different sizes. This study 1) puts forward an estimate of the distribution of main manure nutrients between farms of different sizes, 2) estimates how this distribution will change in the near future and 3) discusses the land use effects of this development. Results suggest that by the year 2030 farms housing > 500 livestock units will produce more than two-thirds of all manure phosphorus, whereas the proportion in 2010 was one-third. With the Nitrates Directive limiting the use of organic nitrate of manure, growing farms need to acquire, or conclude contracts for the use of, 4.9 million hectares from exiting farms or the open market in order to comply with manure spreading requirements. This shift will involve 64% of the total spreading area of 2010 and 15% of the total utilized agricultural area of the regions studied. In light of these predictions, international nutrient policies should consider the evolution of farm structure in general and manure phosphorus agglomeration in particular. Also salient is improved co-operation beyond the single farm level to ensure the functionality of crop-livestock systems.