Incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma in a community-based Taiwanese population without chronic HBV/HCV infection

Background & Aims In addition to HBV/HCV causing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), other risk factors including obesity and alcohol drinking also increase risk. We describe the cumulative risk of HCC and mortality from liver-related disease by selected modifiable risk factors among a non-hepatitis virus-infected population. Methods For a community-based cohort, residents aged 30–65 years living in 7 townships in Taiwan were recruited, and have been followed up since 1991. A total of 18,541 individuals were seronegative for markers of chronic infection of HBV/HCV and with no history of HCC at baseline. New non-HBV/HCV HCC cases and liver-related deaths were ascertained through data linkage to the National Cancer Registry and Death Certification System from 1 January 1991 through 31 December 2017. Results There were 207 HCC cases and 215 liver-related deaths identified. The incidence rate of non-HBV/HCV HCC was 47.2 per 100,000 person-years. The mortality rate of liver-related death was 49.0 per 100,000 person-years. Baseline information on alcohol consumption, heart disease, diabetes, elevated aspartate aminotransferase, and alanine aminotransferase predicted higher risks of HCC, with hazard ratios (HRs) (95% CIs) of 1.7 (1.1–2.5), 2.2 (1.1–4.1), 1.9 (1.0–3.5), 1.7 (1.1–2.4), and 1.6 (1.0–2.4), respectively. The HRs (95% CIs) of liver-related death were 2.3 (1.6–3.2) for alcohol consumption, 1.4 (1.1–1.9) for BMI ≥25 kg/m2, 2.2 (1.4–3.3) for elevated aspartate aminotransferase, and 1.5 (1.0–2.4) for elevated alanine aminotransferase. The HR (95% CI) was 8.1 (3.6–18.5) for those with diabetes and elevated aspartate aminotransferase. Conclusions Individuals with elevated liver enzymes are at high risk of liver disease. Prevention and treatment of diabetes and heart disease are critical for non-hepatitis B, non-hepatitis C (NonB/C)-HCC. Lay summary We followed up individuals with no chronic HBV or HCV infection and described the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC, the most common form of primary liver cancer) and mortality from liver-related disease by modifiable risk factors. This study estimated the incidence rate of HCC by selected lifestyle risk factors and chronic diseases conditions. Alcohol consumption, heart disease, diabetes, and abnormal blood liver function tests showed a strong association with HCC risk and mortality.

Graphical abstract

Highlights • Alcohol drinking increases risks of NonB/C-HCC and liver-related death. • Both heart disease and diabetes are associated with the risk of NonB/C-HCC. • Elevated AST and ALT are major risk factors for NonB/C-HCC and liver-related death. • Prevention and treatment of diabetes and heart disease are critical for NonB/C-HCC.