Does Hubble Tension Signal a Breakdown in FLRW Cosmology?

The tension between early and late Universe probes of the Hubble constant has motivated various new FLRW cosmologies. Here, we reanalyse the Hubble tension with a recent age of the Universe constraint. This allows us to restrict attention to matter and a dark energy sector that we treat without assuming a specific model. Assuming analyticity of the Hubble parameter $H(z)$, and a generic low redshift modification to flat $\Lambda$CDM, we find that low redshift data ($z \lesssim 2.5$) and well-motivated priors only permit a dark energy sector close to the cosmological constant $\Lambda$. This restriction rules out late Universe modifications within FLRW. We show that early Universe physics that alters the sound horizon can yield an upper limit of $H_0 \sim 71 \pm 1$ km/s/Mpc. Since various local determinations may be converging to $H_0 \sim 73$ km/s/Mpc, a breakdown of the FLRW framework is a plausible resolution. We outline how future data, in particular strongly lensed quasar data, could also provide further confirmations of such a resolution.

Comment: v1 10 pages, comments welcome, especially on appendix D & Figure 4; v2, typos corrected, Figure 4 improved, observations strengthened; v3 references added, matches version published as invited contribution to CQG "Focus Issue on the Hubble Constant Tension"