Clinicopathological predictors of postoperative upstaging to invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC) in patients preoperatively diagnosed with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS): a multi-institutional retrospective cohort study

Background We conducted a prospective study with the intention to omit surgery for patients with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) of the breast. We aimed to identify clinicopathological predictors of postoperative upstaging to invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC) in patients preoperatively diagnosed with DCIS. Patients and methods We retrospectively analyzed patients with DCIS diagnosed through biopsy between April 1, 2010 and December 31, 2014, from 16 institutions. Clinical, radiological, and histological variables were collected from medical records. Results We identified 2,293 patients diagnosed with DCIS through biopsy, including 1,663 DCIS (72.5%) cases and 630 IDC (27.5%) cases. In multivariate analysis, the presence of a palpable mass (odds ratio [OR] 1.8; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.2–2.6), mammography findings (≥ category 4; OR 1.8; 95% CI 1.2–2.6), mass formations on ultrasonography (OR 1.8; 95% CI 1.2–2.5), and tumor size on MRI (> 20 mm; OR 1.7; 95% CI 1.2–2.4) were independent predictors of IDC. Among patients with a tumor size on MRI of ≤ 20 mm, the possibility of postoperative upstaging to IDC was 22.1%. Among the 258 patients with non-palpable mass, nuclear grade 1/2, and positive for estrogen receptor, the possibility was 18.1%, even if the upper limit of the tumor size on MRI was raised to ≤ 40 mm. Conclusion We identified four independent predictive factors of upstaging to IDC after surgery among patients with DCIS diagnosed by biopsy. The combined use of various predictors of IDC reduces the possibility of postoperative upstaging to IDC, even if the tumor size on MRI is larger than 20 mm.