Analiza determinanti, dinamike i održivosti tekućeg računa bilansa plaćanja

APSTRAKT Spoljne neravnoteže su fenomen koji je značajnu pažnju dobio kako u teorijskim i empirijskim istraživanjima, tako i među kreatorima ekonomske politike tokom prethodnih decenija. Velike globalne neravnoteže koje su prethodile izbijanju svetske nansijske krize 2008. godine su u najmanju ruku doprinele širenju krize, ako ne i njenom nastanku. Makroekonomske implikacije spoljnih neravnoteža zahtevaju identi kaciju faktora koji su doprineli njihovom nastanku i širenju, ocenu potrebe za merama ekonomske politike i njihovih dometa u otklanjanju neravnoteža, kao i ocenu rizika spoljnih prilagođavanja u budućnosti. Imajući to u vidu, teza nastoji da da odgovore na neka od sledećih pitanja: 1. U kojoj meri se determinante teku´ceg raµcuna bilansa pla´canja razlikuju me u zemljama? Koliki su dometi mera ekonomske politike u otklanjanju spoljne neravnoteµze u Srbiji? Da li je trenutna spoljna pozicija Srbije odrµziva? Veliki deo studija determinanti teku´ceg raµcuna bilansa pla´canja u analizi primenjuje panel tehnike. Ovo je opravdano po to je ideja da se u analizu ukljuµci to ve´ci broj razlµcitih determinanti, a po pravilu su dostupne godi nje serije podataka, to implicira relativno kratke uzorke za ve´cinu zemalja u razvoju i zemalja sa trµzi tem u nastajanju. Me utim, potencijalno ograniµcenje panel tehnika je da se znaµcaj determinanti moµze razlikovati izme u zemalja u velikom uzorku, pa ova heterogenost moµze uticati na validnost nalnih ocena parametara. Kako bi se ovaj problem prevazi ao prvi deo ove teze koristi tehnike modelskog uproseµcavanja koje omogu´cavaju da se u analizu ukljuµce sve relevantne var- ijable dok se ona fokusira na podatke samo jedne zemlje. Analiza determinanti teku´ceg raµcuna bilansa pla´canja sprovedena je u u uzorku koji obuhvata period od poslednjih 20 godina u malim otvoreni privredama sa ksnim (Maroko, Ukrajina i Estonija) i eks- ibilnim kursom (Srbija, Poljska i Gruzija), sa ciljem da se identi kuju potencijalne raz- like me u njima. Rezultati analize ukazuju da se determinante teku´ceg raµcuna razlikuju me u zemljama kako u pogledu smera, tako i u pogledu veliµcine uticaja, to u velikoj meri umanjuje primenljivost u literaturi uobiµcajenih panel studija, posebno u kontek- stu analize odrµzivosti pozicija. ABSTRACT External imbalances have been in the focus of both academic literature and policy discussion over the past decades. Build-up of external imbalances in the period prior to the 2008 crisis contributed at least to the propagation of its negative shocks if not to its emergence. Macroeconomic implications of external imbalances show that it is important to identify their main drivers, assess the need for policy action and its potential e¤ects and quantify the risks of future external adjustments. Given the importance of these issues the thesis aims to answer the following questions: 1. To what extent current account determinants di¤er among countries? How big is the potential impact of policy measures on the external adjustment in Serbia? Is Serbia s current external position sustainable? A large number of empirical studies of the current account (CA) determinants use panel econometric tech- niques. This is reasonable, since on one hand the idea is to include all relevant determ- inants, while on the other hand annual data series are typically available, which implies relatively short samples for most of the emerging and developing economies. However, the importance of potential determinants may di¤er across the large number of countries and this heterogeneity may bias the resulting parameter estimates for individual coun- tries. To overcome this issue the thesis uses model averaging techniques which allows it to include all relevant CA determinants in the analysis while focusing on the individual country s data. The determinants of CA balances are estimated over past 20 years for small open economies with xed (Morocco, Ukraine and Estonia) and exible exchange rate (Serbia, Poland and Georgia), with the aim of identifying potential di¤erences among them. Di¤erent coe¢ cient signs and magnitudes indicate heterogeneity among countries, highlighting the drawbacks of panel estimates, particularly for the analysis of external sustainability. Once the main determinants are identi ed, this part of the thesis uses es- timated in uences of macro-variables on the CA balance to generate a rich set of possible outcomes for the external position of the country. The results of external sustainability assessment for Serbia suggest that scal adjustment can reduce CA de cit and stabilize external position close to its current level in the medium term. The analysis also warns that lack of success in scal consolidation coupled with external shocks may easily push external position on an unsustainable path.