ANALYSIS OF CURRENCY RISK WITH REAL ESTATE LOAN

Na razvoj in organiziranje slovenskega nepremičninskega trga od leta 1991 dalje je imel pomemben vpliv Jazbinškov zakon. Najemniki v družbenih stanovanjih so le-ta odkupili pod ugodnimi pogoji. V času dveh let kolikor je trajala privatizacija, in sicer od oktobra 1991 do oktobra 1993 je bilo prodanih 139.087 od tedaj skupno 220 tisoč stanovanj v družbeni lasti. Večina ostalih stanovanj je bila denacionalizirana. Skoraj dokončana privatizacija v zadnjih dveh desetletjih, visoka gospodarska rast in stabilen sistem socialnega varstva so bili podlaga za povečano povpraševanje po nepremičninah. Povpraševanje po nepremičninah je bilo večje od ponudbe. Dodatna vzpodbuda za rast cen nepremičnin je bila podana z legalizacijo nakupne možnosti za državljane evropske unije. To je bil povod, da so se že tako visoke cene nepremičnin še povišale. Posamezniki s povprečnimi osebnimi dohodki v letu 2007, so si kupno moč zvišali s posojili v švicarskih frankih. Delež posojil v domači in tuji valuti se je izrazito povečal od leta 2003 dalje. Ob koncu leta 2009 je znašala skupna vsota posojil vezana na švicarski frank približno 1 mrd eur, kar predstavlja cca.25% delež vseh dodobrenih stanovanjskih posojil. Delež bančnega kredita v skupni vrednosti nepremičnine je izražen skozi količnik LTV. V primeru 20% pologa, znaša količnik LTV 80%. Količnik predstavlja pomemben indikator tveganosti bančnega posojila. Večji kot je, večje je tveganje, da vrednost nepremičnine ne bo zadoščala za poplačilo glavnice v primeru uveljavitve hipoteke. Pri posojilih v tuji valuti prevladuje potrošniška hipotekarna posojila, ki jih najemajo gospodinjstva s prihodki in premoženjem v domači valuti. Običajno posojilo v tuji valuti, ki je bilo najeto s strani gospodinstva je bilo namenjeno za nakup hiše ali stanovanja, ročnosti med 20 in 30 let in zavarovano s hipoteko. Maksimalen LTV znaša do 80% in je primerljiv s posojili v evrih. Posojila so vezana na variabilno obrestno mero in pribitek okoli 2,00% na 6 ali 12 mesečni LIBOR in obračunana vsakih 6 ali 12 mesecev.. Anuitetni izračun posojila vključuje mesečno odplačilo obresti in glavnice z možnostjo predčasnega odplačila in menjave valute kredita proti plačilu stroškov. Posojilojemalec je z najemom kredita v švicarskih frankih izpostavljen tveganju spremembe deviznega tečaja med EUR in švicarskimi franki ( CHF ). Ker posojila v tuji valuti niso ustrezno zavarovana predstavlja ta izpostavljenost grožnjo finančni stabilnosti posameznika. The Slovenian real estate market started to organize and developed in the beginning of 1991s with strong influence of Jazbinšek's law. Tenants purchased the flats under favorable terms. From 220.000 public-state real estate in the time of privatisation from october 1991 until october 1993, 139.087 of them were sold. All the others were denationalisated. In the last two decades the privatization process has been almost concluded with few exceptions, the high growth rate in the last years and a stabile social welfare system, has given the citizens opportunity for stronger demand for private property. The demand for real estates in Slovenia was by the far greater than the supply. Real estate demand had another impact when new legislation, allowing EU residents to purchase real estate in Slovenia was introduced. This resulted in even further accelerating the real estate price level, which was already high. The individuals with an average wages in year 2007, have used foreign currency loans in Swiss francs to maximise their purchase power. Loans to Slovenian households in domestic and foreign currency have been growing rapidly since the late 2003th. By the end of 2009, for approximately 1 billion eur were outstanding in loans to Slovenian households in foreign currency, almost 25 percent of total amount of loans that were made to Slovenian households ( Figure 4 ). The loan to value ratio (or LTV) is the size of the loan against the value of the property. Therefore, a mortgage loan in which the purchaser has made a downpayment of 20% has a loan to value ratio of 80%. The loan to value ratio is considered an important indicator of the riskiness of a mortgage loan. The higher the LTV, the higher the risk that the value of the property in case of foreclosure will be insufficient to cover the remaining principal of the loan. Foreign currency borrowing is dominated by retail loans – household mortgages to clients which typically have their income and assets in local currency. A typical foreign currency loan to an Slovenian household is predominantly used for purchasing a house or flat and has a maturity between 20 and 30 years, is secured by real estate collateral. Has a loan-to-value ratio (maximum 80%) than a comparable euro-denominated loan. It usually also has a variable interest rate that is set at a spread of around 200 basis points above the 6 or 12 month LIBOR and repriced every six or twelve months. Is an annuity loan (involving monthly payments of interest and principal). It also offers the borrower the option for repayment and to switch to domestic currency at any time they want for a fee. For example, a customer in Slovenia with a long term CHF borrowing is typically exposed to exchange rate risk between the EUR and the Swiss franc (CHF). We can say that unhedged foreign currency (FX) borrowing by the private sector is seen as a major threat to individuals financial stability.