台灣地區各級政府支出與國民所得之探測（1955∼1993）──發現與意涵 ; An Investigation Between Public Expenditures and National Income in Taiwan -- Findings and Implications (1955-1993)

為了解台灣地區近四十年來，政府支出規模之演變情形，及其與國民 所得之間可能存在的因果關係，本研究將台灣地區之相關資料，先進行因 果關係檢定，待確定其因果關係後，隨即以彈性分析方法進行Wagner假說 的探討並以線性迴歸分析法檢討凱因斯的公共支出理論對台灣經濟成長之 貢獻情形。文中除針對Wagner假說在台灣的適用性加以驗證外，並另外進 行固定價格面的檢定，用以檢討實質面的政府支出是否也符合Wagner假說 之政府支出規模遞增法則。此外，為再檢討Beck假說中所提之移轉性支出 在固定價格方面的演變趨勢，亦即檢討在固定價格下，政府部門之移轉性 支出是否會在經濟成長的過程中，更顯著地呈現支出規模擴增的現象。本 研究將各級政府支出淨額再分為消費性支出與移轉性支出兩大類，分別加 以檢定。 為深入分析各級政府支出規模在不同年代之變化，本研究將 全部資料期間分為三個階段，用以觀察在這三階段中，各項政府支出在台 灣的經濟成長過程中之消長情形。此外，為深入了解政府支出規模之擴大 對經濟成長率之影響，本文除台灣資料的分析外，並另外選擇六個主要工 業國家（美、加、德、英、法、義）和二個亞洲地區之開發中國家（新加 坡、韓國）作為比較基礎，以探討這種影響是否和一個國家之開發程度有 關。 由於本文之結論，將受到資料期間、階段劃分、固定價格之處理 方法以及資料定態性之檢定過程等多重因素影響。因此，有關政府支出和 國民所得間之各種關係，仍有待日後在統計資料更趨完整及統計方法更趨 精確的環境下，繼續更深入的探討。 In order to understand how the scales of government expenditure have been changed during the past 40 years and its possible causal relationship with national income, few analyeses had been conducted with Taiwan's empirical data.(1) Causality relationship between the two was tested.(2) Based on the found causal relationship, Wangner's Hypothesis was further tested with elasticity analysis. And (3) Keynesian Effective Demand Theory was also tested with regression analysis to estimate how much the scale of government expenditure contributing to Taiwan' s economic growth. In this article, the validity of Wagner's Hypothesis and the principle of increasing real government expenditure proposed by Wagner was examined with Taiwan's situation. In addition, Beck's Hypothesis, that is, the trend of scale of real government transfer expenditure would augment significantly along with economic growth, has also been discussed. Beck's hypothesis has been tested separately by dividing all levels of net government expenditures into purchase expenditures and transfer expenditures to verify if the scale of real transfer expenditure expended significantly along with the process of economic growth. Data in 1955-1993 were sub-divided into 3 stages to capture the different scales of Taiwan's government expendit- ures. During the process of Taiwan's economic growth, various government expenditure variations were studied. Economic growth, industrial structural changes, trade surplus, national savings, public investments and bonds data were presented in every decade to provide comparative background information for Taiwan's econ- omic development process and attributes. International compara- tive analyses with major developed countries and Asian developing countries were also included to study if the relationship between the scales of government expenditures and economic growth associ- ated with each country's degree of development.