Collaborative Proposal to Extend ONR YIP research with BRC Efforts

The long-term scientific goals of this research project are: 1. To develop an understanding of how some sources of error affect ocean predictability. 2. To gain experience and develop ideas for the limitations to the predictability of oceanic processes. The primary objectives of this project are: (i) to undertand the importance of model uncertainty; (ii) to assess the influence of uncertainty on predictability; and (iii) to collaborate and learn from fellow BRC projects. To improve forecasts of the ocean circulation, we must understand how various parameters can affect model uncertainty. The initial state of a model contains suboptimal parameterizations that may generate a significantly different flow. To understand the predictability of a flow, we must quantify how choices in the model parameters affect its temporal evolution. In this research, I intend to collaborate with Dr. Ralph Milliff on Bayesian techniques developed during the BRC efforts. The ocean model used in this research is the ONR-funded Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): a free-surface, hydrostatic, primitive equation ocean model discretized with a terrain following vertical coordinate system. The model has multiple sub-gridscale parameterizations of vertical mixing along with many options for open boundary conditions. Time-splitting of barotropic and baroclinic motions enables efficient time integration. ROMS has been successfully used to model many regions of the world ocean (see http://www.myroms.org/papers) and is a widely used community resource.