Forecasting coronal mass ejections from line-of-sight magnetograms
In: Challenges to modeling the sun-earth system, a workshopJournal of atmospheric and solar-terrestrial physics 69(1-2):86-90; Jg. 69 (2007) 1-2, S. 86-90
Konferenz
- print, 1/4 p
Zugriff:
We show that the length of strong-gradient, strong-field main neutral line, LSGM, which can be measured from line-of-sight magnetograms such as from SOHO/MDI, is both a measure of active-region nonpotentiality and a useful predictor of an active region's future Coronal mass ejections (CME) productivity. To demonstrate that LSGM is a nonpotentiality measure, we show that it is strongly correlated with a direct measure of nonpotentiality. For an appropriate choice of a threshold value, an active region's measured LSGM can be used as a predictor of whether the active region will produce a CME within a few days after the magnetogram. For our set of 36 Marshall Space Flight CentreMSFC vector magnetograms of bipolar active regions, LSGM is found to have a success rate of 80% for prediction of CME productivity in the 0-2 day window. The development of LSGM as a method of measuring nonpotentiality for forecasting large, fast CMEs from present space-based assets is of value to NASA's space exploration initiative (manned missions to the Moon and Mars).
Titel: |
Forecasting coronal mass ejections from line-of-sight magnetograms
|
---|---|
Autor/in / Beteiligte Person: | FALCONER, D. A ; MOORE, R. L ; GARY, G. A |
Link: | |
Quelle: | Challenges to modeling the sun-earth system, a workshopJournal of atmospheric and solar-terrestrial physics 69(1-2):86-90; Jg. 69 (2007) 1-2, S. 86-90 |
Veröffentlichung: | Oxford: Elsevier, 2007 |
Medientyp: | Konferenz |
Umfang: | print, 1/4 p |
ISSN: | 1364-6826 (print) |
Schlagwort: |
|
Sonstiges: |
|