A longitudinal exploration of the spatiotemporal coupling relationship and driving factors between regional urban development and ecological quality of green space

The rapid development of urban agglomeration harms the ecological environment, which makes the research of its correlation mechanism become an urgent task of sustainability. This study introduces a two-dimensional Ecological Quality of Green Space Index (EQGS) comprising Landscape Pattern Index (LPI) and Remote Sensing Ecological Index (RSEI). Utilizing Coupling Coordination Degree (CCD) model, it examines the dynamics between Regional Urban Development Index (RUDI) and EQGS within five of China’s urban agglomerations between 2014 and 2022. Additionally, it identifies driving factors through Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model. The findings reveal a general decline in the CCD between RUDI and LPI, except in the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration (CCUA), while the CCD with RSEI has seen substantial improvements, with the exception of the Northeast urban agglomeration (NEUA). Regression analysis indicates significant variability in the leading indicators and spatial intensity influencing the coordination degrees across different urban agglomerations. Key factors like landscape dominance and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index positively affect coordination degrees. Developing green corridors to mitigate urban heat islands is crucial for enhancing NEUA’s efficiency, particularly in northern cities. Conversely, CCUA’s sustainable development hinges on improving urban humidity. These insights offer tailored planning suggestions for policymakers to implement scientific strategies in urban green space development.