Long‐term optimal power generation pathways for Pakistan

Abstract Pakistan has faced an electricity shortfall for over two decades despite various efforts taken at different levels. Though electricity supply in recent times has crossed the demand, the supply‐side stresses and deciding optimal power generation pathways have always been a challenge for policymakers and researchers. In this study using a LEAP energy model, following the sectoral electricity demand forecast, four supply‐side scenarios have been developed and analyzed for the study period 2017‐2055. In each scenario, referred to as Business as Usual (BAU), Renewable Energy Technologies (RET), Coal Power Penetration (CPP), and High‐Efficiency Low‐Emission (HELE) scenario, electricity generation, installed generation capacity, cost of production, and GHG emissions are estimated and compared for seeking long‐term optimal energy pathways for Pakistan. The study results reveal that for the end year (2055), RET is an environmentally sustainable scenario with an estimated electricity generation of 2421 TWh, which is enough to meet the electricity demand of 2374TWh. The GHG emissions under the RET scenario are estimated to be 857 million metric Tons, which are around 50% less than CPP and 40% less than the BAU scenario. However, the cost of generation is higher than BAU and CPP scenarios. The CPP scenario emerges to be cost‐competitive, however with the highest GHG emissions. This study thus suggests that convergence of RET with the CPP scenario could be an appealing option for Pakistan to meet increasing demand with energy security and environmental sustainability.