Forcasting Natural Gas Consumption in Nigeria using the Modified Grey Model (MGM(1,1,⊗b))
In: African Scientific Reports, 2022-08-01, S. 115-122
Online
academicJournal
Zugriff:
Accurate prediction of the natural gas consumption in Nigeria is crucial to Gas management. This study utilizes the improved Grey model (MGM(1,1,⊗b)), which is an improvement of the modified Grey model (MGM(1,1)), to forecast the natural gas consumption of Nigeria for the year 2021 to 2025. A secondary data retrieved from the NNPC 2019 annual statistics bulletin was used to build a model for this prediction. Noting that MGM(1,1) model uses the Grey action quantity as a unique real number which do not reflect the uncertainty nature of Grey systems. A model (MGM(1,1,⊗b)) was developed such that it extends the MGM(1,1) model to retain the uncertainty nature of Grey systems. The new modified Grey model (MGM(1,1,⊗b)) was used to make prediction of the natural gas consumption of Nigeria and the results shows that the (MGM(1,1,⊗b)) model gives a prediction interval which the actual value is bracketed. This implies that natural gas consumption of Nigeria for 2021 to 2025 lies within the (MGM(1,1,⊗b)) model prediction values for the same year.
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Forcasting Natural Gas Consumption in Nigeria using the Modified Grey Model (MGM(1,1,⊗b))
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Autor/in / Beteiligte Person: | Obi, Samuel O. ; Akeyede, Imam |
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Zeitschrift: | African Scientific Reports, 2022-08-01, S. 115-122 |
Veröffentlichung: | Nigerian Society of Physical Sciences, 2022 |
Medientyp: | academicJournal |
ISSN: | 2955-1625 (print) ; 2955-1617 (print) |
DOI: | 10.46481/asr.2022.1.2.18 |
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