Coal policy and climate protection. Can the tough German CO2 reduct on target be met by 2005?

With the signing of the Climate Convention at the UNCED in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 a first important step was made toward a coordinated climatic and environmental protection policy. Germany is the host of the first Conference of Parties to be held in Berlin from 28 March to 7 April 1995. It is the ambition of the German government to initiate concrete action at this conference. These activities will be viewed in light of the fact that the government has committed itself, as a first step, to a tough 25-30% reduction in CO2 emissions for West Germany, and a reduction closer to 30% by 2005 relative to 1987 for all of Germany. The impression is growing that the reduction target will be missed and that in many sectors of energy and transport policy decisions are being made that militate against climate and ecosystem protection even beyond 2005. Whether there is cause for this concern is investigated in this paper. On the basis of actual hard coal and brown coal policies as well as oil and gas developments, it will be shown what the likelihood is of meeting the CO2 reduction target by 2005. Moreover, three policy scenarios of the Enquete-Commission of the German Parliament are used to show what the policy options are for meeting the German reduction goal. This paper reaches a clear conclusion, namely that the government's energy and transport policies are not compatible with its CO2 reduction target, and hence its climate protection policy. It is therefore necessary to alter the current policy. Concrete recommendations are made.