Children's ability to make probability estimates: skills revealed through application of Anderson's functional measurement methodology

In study 1, first-, third-, and fifth-grade children were given the task of estimating on a simple, continuous but nonnumeric scale the probability of drawing a particular color of jelly bean from a bag containing either 1, 2, or 3 jelly beans of that color, and either 56, 8, or 10 jelly beans total. In study 2, first- through fifth-grade children were given the task of estimating the likelihood that a bug would fall on a pot containing a flower when presented displays of planters containing either 2, 3, 4, or 5 pots with flowers, and 6, 8, or 10 pots total. In both studies, the children were exposed to each of the combinations of numerator and denominator across 3 replications. The findings are discussed in relation to the broader issue of the limitations of the choice paradigm as a means of investigating children's thinking.