Price and market trends: Europe: inland C3 hit by Ludwigshafen blast. [1 figure in original article]

The effect of Ludwigshafen explosion and fire at BASF continues to be sensed in the inland propylene industry. But the effect on the broader market is uncertain amidst several mixed views from participants. BASF announced force majeure covering offtake of chemical grade propylene (CGP) made at the MIRO refinery located in Karlsruhe due to the damage to the pipeline used for transporting the chemical between the two German locations. The refinery possesses restricted capability in substitute means of transportation, and there were also constraints on railtank and barge availability due to the ongoing Rhine low water levels. There had been reports of CGP loads being traded at EUR 450/tonne free delivered (FD) northwest Europe (NWE), substantially lower than prior price indications at EUR 600s/tonne and considerably lower when compared to the dominant contract price. Sources were unanimous on the effect inland, but several maintained that low prices could have been avoided via time switches for 2017 turnaround planning. Views on the effect on polymer grade propylene (PGP) and in the overall European market were less definite. After reports of a small volume conducted at negative 12% and that the deal could result in downward pressures and comparable values in the coastal sector, several sources stated that double-digit mark downs were representative for PGP inland. Supply length could advance quite swiftly because there are no choices for export. PGP transactions after the BASF outage have been conducted at 4-7% discounts, even if it is possible that lower-priced deals were kept confidential and private. A line graph illustrates the spot prices (EUR/tonne) for chemical (FD NWE) and polymer (CIF NWE) grade propylene from Nov 2015 to Oct 2016. Original Source: ICIS Chemical Business, http://www.icis.com/, Copyright Reed Business Information Limited 2016.