台灣共同基金報酬平滑性與流動性之衡量

在探討台灣共同基金市場月報酬時，常可以觀察到其呈現序列相關的現象。本篇論文旨在研究序列相關的成因，進而追蹤平滑報酬現象和流動性。我們利用Lo and MacKinlay (2004)提出的計量模型，將可觀察到的基金月報酬對落後期的預期報酬做回歸估計。根據模型估計係數值，我們可以用來當作判定流動性和平滑報酬的指標。實證當中發現固定收益型和房地產投資信託基金的流動性偏低，而股票型和指數型基金的流動性偏高。不管在最小平方估計法和最大概似估計法之下，實證結果都呈現類似情況。

In this study we can detect the serial correlation of monthly returns occurred in Taiwan’s mutual fund market associated with Illiquidity and smoothed returns. We utilize a simple econometric model in which observed returns are a finite moving-average of unobserved economic returns and we generate empirically realistic levels of serial correlation for historical mutual-fund returns. We attempt to estimate model coefficients as a proxy of illiquidity exposure and find out some illiquid fund categories (REITs and Fixed Income classifications) having lower smoothing indexes or estimated parameters. Although we utilize two different estimation methods (MLE and OLS) to obtain smoothing parameters we obtain the similar result under both of them, probably because of unbiased estimated coefficients.