Spatio-econometric analysis on urban growth and spatial planning performances: case study in Guangzhou of PRD, China.

自上世紀90年代以來，中國城市空間伴隨經濟的高速增長不斷擴展，迄今為止已經產生了五個巨型城市，高居世界榜首。遺憾的是，中國傳統城市規劃面對高速增長帶來的城市問題和挑戰捉襟見肘。當前的成果著重基於遙感資料的城市外延式空間拓展研究，而對傳統內城的內延式空間增長缺乏考察，而傳統內城恰恰是聚集經濟和城市問題高度集中的地區。外延式拓展往往是內城聚集經濟外溢的結果，故很大程度上是內城空間強度和密度溢出的外在表現。本人通過大量文獻回顧發現，當前中國城市規劃領域在兩個方面的實證研究幾乎是空白：其一是客觀定量考察內城空間增長現象及其機制，其二是科學評估法定規劃在引導城市增長過程中的空間績效。本文力圖通過廣州實證研究，從空間經濟交互的角度實現上述研究空白領域的突破。

該研究充分挖掘現行城市土地和建設管理資料、勘測地圖和社會經濟統計的空間-經濟資訊並建立海量資料庫，採用GIS 技術和GWR 空間統計方法，對廣州內城垂直空間強度和水準空間密度的增長進行了定量觀察，科學分析了增長現象背後的空間經濟機制，並籍此對廣州城市規劃管理單元控制導則進行了客觀評估。觀察發現，聚集經濟力量始終支配著空間強度和密度的梯級分佈。地方政府土地供應成為刺激空間強度增長的中堅力量，而地方政府財政支援是空間密度增長的核心動力。同時，空間強度的形成對經濟全球化水準顯示出明顯依賴。分析表明，城市規劃干預雖然對空間增長起到明顯作用，但廣州內城的增長規模遠遠超出了規劃預期，規劃自由裁量權成為規劃適應實際增長需求的關鍵手段，由此可見，實際空間強度和密度的增長並不是規劃控制的成果，而是政府與市場博弈的結果。研究認為，城市中心持續聚集並逐漸溢出蔓延有其必然規律，增長雖然無法有效遏制，但可以通過合理的增長管理實現有效的空間組織，其中城市邊緣地區是增長管理的關鍵。值得注意的是，任何一種管理手段都有正面和負面的影響，有效的增長管理必須基於客觀的空間經濟增長機制，並需建立長效的規劃監控和動態管理機制，而定期的現象觀察和空間規劃績效評估應成為核心內容。

Urban economic growth has hastened urban spatial expansion since the 1990s in China, and five megacities such as Guangzhou emerged by 2011. The evidence indicates that this growth shows few signs of stopping in the foreseeable future. The ontology and epistemology of Chinese-style urban planning are unfortunately overstretched in terms of the challenges resulting from rapid growth. Urban growth studies have focused on the present achievements of spatial expansion to non-urban areas based on remote sensing data while ignoring the maturely urbanized areas emphasized by urban planning. However, both agglomeration economies and serious urban problems are centralized within the downtown area. Urban sprawl to the non-urban area is a physical consequence of agglomeration economy spillover, and is hence a consequence of spatial intensification and densification spillover. Two kinds of studies have been nearly absent in the realm of Chinese urban planning. The first comprises objective observations on spatial intensification and densification growth patterns and mechanisms in urbanized area. The second comprises reviews and evaluations of planning performance in the urban growth process at the day-to-day administrative level based on objective observations and real-world quantitative evidence. Both types of studies draw forth the objectives of this research.

With an emphasis on the national and local contexts, this dissertation analyzes the spatio-economic mechanisms of urban growth and planning performances in the rapidly growing Guangzhou megacity of the PRD. It is the first exploration targeted at a maturely urbanized inner-city to use a combination of urban construction administration documents, survey maps, socioeconomic statistics, GIS and GWR to observe the spatio-economic mechanisms of urban growth in the vertical and horizontal dimensions for the frantic growth years between 2000 and 2010. Defining the sub-district as a spatial analysis unit, it is also the first study to use massive amounts of digital data to evaluate spatial planning performance at the Zoning level, which is the statutory platform of day-to-day planning administration. This study observed a substantial variety of spatio-economic mechanisms in terms of both vertical and horizontal urban growth across the space. Agglomeration economies dominated the gradient distribution of urban growth no matter what kinds of interventions were imposed according to the planning. Whereas the horizontal growth exhibited significant dependence on government budgetary expenditure, the vertical growth was mainly driven by land supply and greatly dependent on the economic globalization level. The spatial performances of Zoning were effective at protecting historical/ecological interests and guiding the direction of spatial expansion in the city fringe. However, it performed poorly in terms of old town evacuation and new town development. It is surprising that the administration uses planning discretion to shape growth based on a Zoning that has proved impossible to achieve in reality. This study reveals that the traditional Chinese-style planning systems risk urban growth in sustainable development.

This dissertation sheds light on the objective observation and investigation of urban growth mechanisms and planning performances. Its findings could help us better understand urban behavior and make inferences on how socioeconomic processes influence urban growth in different dimensions, which in turn could have considerable effects on planning implementation and spatial performance. Its research achievements could aid in the scientific goal-setting, planning formulation and implementation for better growth management in China’s cities. In particular, this dissertation is expected to trigger cross-disciplinary studies on urban behavior and quantitative planning evaluations based on objective observations.

Detailed summary in vernacular field only.

Huang, Zhen.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2013.

Includes bibliographical references (leaves 193-203).

Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web.

also in Chinese.

Chapter CHAPTER I --- Introduction --- p.1

Chapter 1.1 --- Background --- p.1

Chapter 1.1.1 --- International Perspective of China's Megacities --- p.1

Chapter 1.1.2 --- National and Local Context of Guangzhou --- p.4

Chapter 1.1.3 --- Urban Growth in Guangzhou --- p.5

Chapter 1.1.4 --- Urban Planning of Guangzhou --- p.8

Chapter 1.2 --- Research Objectives and Questions --- p.11

Chapter 1.2.1 --- Research Objectives and Subject --- p.11

Chapter 1.2.2 --- Research Questions and Hypotheses --- p.14

Chapter 1.3 --- Research Framework and Dissertation Structure --- p.15

Chapter CHAPTER II --- Literature Review --- p.18

Chapter 2.1 --- Urban Planning Paradigm and Methodology --- p.18

Chapter 2.1.1 --- Planning Paradigm shifts with Urban Growth --- p.18

Chapter 2.1.2 --- Planning Theories Dealing with Urban Growth --- p.19

Chapter 2.1.3 --- Planning Methodology based on the Socioeconomic Context --- p.20

Chapter 2.1.4 --- Chinese-style Urban Planning --- p.23

Chapter 2.2 --- Detecting and Understanding Urban Growth --- p.26

Chapter 2.2.1 --- Detecting Urban Growth --- p.26

Chapter 2.2.2 --- Growth Pattern Identification --- p.27

Chapter 2.2.3 --- Exploring the Driving Force of Urban Growth --- p.28

Chapter 2.3 --- Planning Review and Evaluation for Managing Urban Growth --- p.29

Chapter 2.3.1 --- International Experiences --- p.29

Chapter 2.3.2 --- National Experiences --- p.30

Chapter 2.4 --- Sub-summary --- p.31

Chapter CHAPTER III --- Theory and Methodology --- p.34

Chapter 3.1 --- Theoretical Framework and Technical Supports --- p.34

Chapter 3.1.1 --- Interdisciplinary Theories and Techniques --- p.34

Chapter 3.1.2 --- Link between Disciplines and Techniques --- p.35

Chapter 3.2 --- Measurement Methods and Data Acquisition --- p.37

Chapter 3.2.1 --- Measures of Urban Growth --- p.37

Chapter 3.2.2 --- Measures of Planning Performance --- p.39

Chapter 3.2.3 --- Measures of Urban Economy --- p.42

Chapter 3.3 --- Research Methodology --- p.42

Chapter 3.3.1 --- Methodology of Phenomena Observation --- p.43

Chapter 3.3.2 --- Methodology of Correlations Investigation (CIM) --- p.45

Chapter 3.3.3 --- Methodology of Planning Interpretation (PIM) --- p.52

Chapter 3.4 --- Sub-summary --- p.54

Chapter CHAPTER IV --- Detecting Urban Growth and Analyzing Planning Performance --- p.55

Chapter 4.1 --- Database Establishment --- p.55

Chapter 4.1.1 --- Data Collection and Processing --- p.55

Chapter 4.1.2 --- Variables in the Database --- p.68

Chapter 4.2 --- Detecting Urban Growth --- p.70

Chapter 4.2.1 --- Overview of Urban Growth --- p.70

Chapter 4.2.2 --- Distribution of Economic Growth in the Inner City --- p.71

Chapter 4.2.3 --- Spillover of Urban Spatial Growth --- p.73

Chapter 4.3 --- Detecting the Spatial Performances of Zoning --- p.76

Chapter 4.3.1 --- Expected Urban Growth Pattern in Zoning --- p.77

Chapter 4.3.2 --- Conformities between Reality and Expectations --- p.81

Chapter 4.3.3 --- Contradictions between Reality and Expectations --- p.84

Chapter 4.4 --- Detecting Planning Interventions --- p.87

Chapter 4.4.1 --- Expectations of Spatial Development Potentials --- p.88

Chapter 4.4.2 --- Expectations of Capital Agglomeration Potentials --- p.89

Chapter 4.5 --- Sub-summary --- p.90

Chapter CHAPTER V --- Examining Urban Growth Patterns and Planning Interventions --- p.95

Chapter 5.1 --- Analyzing Urban Growth Patterns --- p.95

Chapter 5.1.1 --- Vertical Urban Growth (VUG) Pattern --- p.95

Chapter 5.1.2 --- Horizontal Urban Growth (HUG) Pattern --- p.96

Chapter 5.1.3 --- Spatial Agglomeration Growth (SAG) Pattern --- p.97

Chapter 5.1.4 --- Economic Growth Pattern --- p.99

Chapter 5.2 --- Planning Effects on the VUG Pattern --- p.101

Chapter 5.2.1 --- Model Specification --- p.101

Chapter 5.2.2 --- Spatially Varying Mechanism --- p.103

Chapter 5.3 --- Planning Effects on the HUG Pattern --- p.108

Chapter 5.3.1 --- Model Specification --- p.108

Chapter 5.3.2 --- Spatially Varying Mechanism --- p.110

Chapter 5.4 --- Planning Effects on the Economic Growth Pattern --- p.113

Chapter 5.4.1 --- Model Specification --- p.114

Chapter 5.4.2 --- Spatially Varying Mechanism --- p.115

Chapter 5.5 --- Sub-summary --- p.118

Chapter CHAPTER VI --- Exploring the Spatio-economic Mechanisms (SEMs) of Urban Growth and Estimating Planning Failures --- p.123

Chapter 6.1 --- SEMs and Planning Effects on VUG --- p.123

Chapter 6.1.1 --- Model Specification --- p.123

Chapter 6.1.2 --- Spatially Varying Mechanism --- p.125

Chapter 6.2 --- SEMs and Planning Effects on HUG --- p.129

Chapter 6.2.1 --- Model Specification --- p.129

Chapter 6.2.2 --- Findings and Interpretation --- p.131

Chapter 6.3 --- Spatial Dependence of Economic Elements Growth --- p.132

Chapter 6.3.1 --- Model Specification --- p.132

Chapter 6.3.2 --- Findings and Interpretation --- p.134

Chapter 6.4 --- Government Intervention Mechanism of Spatial Shaping --- p.136

Chapter 6.4.1 --- Model Specification --- p.136

Chapter 6.4.2 --- Spatially Varying Mechanism --- p.138

Chapter 6.5 --- Estimation of Planning Failures --- p.142

Chapter 6.5.1 --- Estimation model Establishment --- p.142

Chapter 6.5.2 --- Findings and Interpretation --- p.143

Chapter 6.6 --- Sub-summary --- p.147

Chapter CHAPTER VII --- Implications of Planning and Application for Growth Management --- p.153

Chapter 7.1 --- Perfect Planning in an Imperfect World --- p.153

Chapter 7.1.1 --- Large Gaps between Planning Wills and Reality --- p.153

Chapter 7.1.2 --- Complex City System and Dynamic Urban Growth --- p.154

Chapter 7.1.3 --- Limitations of Traditional Planning --- p.155

Chapter 7.1.4 --- The Role of Urban Planning --- p.156

Chapter 7.2 --- Concrete Planning Based on Local Knowledge --- p.157

Chapter 7.2.1 --- Local Knowledge Learning from Histories --- p.157

Chapter 7.2.2 --- Local Knowledge Emphasizing Introspection and Empirical Studies --- p.157

Chapter 7.2.3 --- Local Knowledge Supported by Monitoring and Feedback --- p.158

Chapter 7.3 --- Rationale Planning Adhering to Agglomeration Economies --- p.159

Chapter 7.3.1 --- Agglomeration Economies: Positive or Negative --- p.159

Chapter 7.3.2 --- Agglomeration Economies Center: Too Crowded or Not --- p.160

Chapter 7.3.3 --- Agglomeration Economies: Spatial Diffusion Mechanisms --- p.162

Chapter 7.4 --- The Paradoxes of Anti-sprawl Planning --- p.163

Chapter 7.4.1 --- Centralization vs. Decentralization --- p.163

Chapter 7.4.2 --- Growth Priority in the City Fringe --- p.164

Chapter 7.5 --- Shaping Growth with Economic Thinking --- p.165

Chapter 7.5.1 --- Basic Spatio-economic Mechanisms --- p.166

Chapter 7.5.2 --- Driving a Compact New Town --- p.167

Chapter 7.6 --- The Pros and Cons of Government Intervention --- p.167

Chapter 7.6.1 --- Intervention Instruments for Growth Shaping --- p.168

Chapter 7.6.2 --- Pros and Cons --- p.170

Chapter 7.7 --- Growth Management Planning (GMP) as an Application --- p.171

Chapter 7.7.1 --- Role of GMP in the Current Planning Systems --- p.172

Chapter 7.7.2 --- Methodology of GMP --- p.173

Chapter 7.8 --- Sub-summary --- p.175

Chapter CHAPTER VIII --- Conclusion and Limitations --- p.179

Chapter 8.1 --- Restating the Research Objectives and Questions --- p.180

Chapter 8.2 --- Measurement and Data Acquisition Innovations --- p.181

Chapter 8.3 --- Findings of Urban Growth Observation --- p.183

Chapter 8.4 --- Findings of Planning Evaluation --- p.185

Chapter 8.5 --- Planning Implications --- p.186

Chapter 8.6 --- Potential Applications --- p.188

Chapter 8.7 --- Key Contributions and Significance --- p.190

Chapter 8.8 --- Limitations and Future Work --- p.191

References --- p.193

Appendix --- p.204