Extratropical Influences on the Inter-Annual Variability of South-Asian Monsoon

The effects of extratropical dynamics on the interannual variations in South-Asian Monsoon (SAM) are examined. Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and CRU precipitation data, a conditional maximum covariance analysis is performed on sea level pressure, 200 hPa geopotential heights and the SAM rainfall by removing the linear effects of El-Niño Southern Oscillation from the fields. It is found that two modes provide a strong connection between the upper-level circulation in the Atlantic/European region and SAM rainfall: the Circumglobal Teleconnection (CGT) and the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO). The structures in the 200 hPa heights of both modes in the Atlantic region are similar in the Atlantic region, and their southeastward extension to South Asia (SA) also corresponds to upper-level ridges (in their positive phases) in slightly different positions. Nevertheless, the influence of both modes on SAM rainfall is distinct. Whereas a positive CGT is related to a widespread increase of rainfall in SAM, a positive SNAO is related to a precipitation dipole with its positive phase over Pakistan and the negative phase over northern India. The physical mechanisms for the influence of CGT and SNAO on SAM are related to the upper-level geopotential anomaly which affects the amplitude and position of the low-level convergence. The small displacements of the centers of these responses and the low level cold advection from the north east of SA in case of SNAO explain the differences in the corresponding SAM rainfall distributions. These findings are confirmed with the relatively high-resolution coupled climate model EC-Earth, which gives confidence in the physical basis and robustness of these extratropical variability modes and their influence on the South-Asian monsoon rainfall.