The Consequences of a Low First-Year Grade Point Average on Later College Outcomes

Traditionally, a college grade point average (GPA) of 2.00 or higher has signified that a student has made acceptable academic progress and avoided academic probation. However, having a 3.00 or higher has signified a level of success that is often required for admission to graduate school, maintaining a scholarship or enrollment in an honors program, and for consideration by corporate recruiters. Focusing on students with a first-year GPA (FYGPA) between 2.00 and 2.99, this study examined degree completion rates and fourth-year cumulative grade point average (CGPA) across a sample of 97,282 students enrolled at 73 four-year institutions. Results showed that for students with FYGPAs between 2.50 and 2.99, just 48% graduated within four years and only 45% had a fourth-year CGPA of 3.00 or higher. For students with FYGPAs between 2.00 and 2.49, just 28% graduated within four years and only 18% had a fourth-year CGPA of 3.00 or higher. These students with a 2.00 to 2.99 FYGPA were also more likely to be first-generation college students, underrepresented minority students, and students from more challenging neighborhood environments. Logistic regression analyses showed that students' chances of graduating within four years and pulling their CGPAs above 3.00 given a FYGPA below 3.00 were quite low. Given the implications of a low but acceptable FYGPA, early identification of students who may benefit from particular academic advising initiatives as they transition to college may be key to keeping all doors open for as many students as possible, doors encountered both throughout and after college.